Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -1800 BCU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +21 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -19.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -15.2 (+5.8) | 145.0 (-28.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -13.9 (+7.1) | 145.1 (-28.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -15.5 (+5.5) | 145.2 (-28.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -15.2 (+5.8) | 144.8 (-27.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | -12.5 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#118) | -2.91 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#129) | -4.69 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#122) | 0.301 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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