Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -200 MONM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -2.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -5.7 (+9.3) | 147.2 (-10.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -2.7 (+12.3) | 146.3 (-9.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -2.4 (+12.6) | 147.2 (-10.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -1.9 (+13.1) | 147.2 (-10.2) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#220) | 1.5 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#226) | 1.85 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#221) | 2.91 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#292) | 0.551 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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