Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MD -1600 USA +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MD -14.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -10.2 (+2.8) | 131.4 (-8.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -9.7 (+3.3) | 133.2 (-10.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -10.6 (+2.4) | 133.2 (-10.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -10.4 (+2.6) | 135.6 (-12.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#134) | -5.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#281) | -0.25 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#248) | -0.73 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#271) | 0.484 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 22.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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