Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | WCU -250 UNA +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +18 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -13.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -10.2 (+7.8) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -11.1 (+6.9) | 146.4 (-2.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -11.6 (+6.4) | 145.7 (-1.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -11.8 (+6.2) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#93) | -1.2 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#15) | 0.02 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.58 (#21) | 0.04 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.715 (#10) | 0.467 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 10.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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