Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UIC -111 GW -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +10 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -2.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -1.1 (+8.9) | 144.5 (+23.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -1.9 (+8.1) | 138.1 (+29.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.7 (+7.3) | 139.1 (+28.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -2.2 (+7.8) | 143.3 (+24.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-9 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#40) | 7.9 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#36) | 2.49 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#32) | 4.13 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#34) | 0.664 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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