Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Alex G. Spanos Center · November 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PAC -20.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money PAC -8000 / MVSU +3300
Model Predictions
Spread Total PAC win
Actual PAC +3 133 Won
Massey PAC -17.8 (-14.8) — —
Massey Totals — 128.6 (+4.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 92% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PAC -13.3 (-10.3) 131.4 (+1.6) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PAC -11.4 (-8.4) 132.9 (+0.1) 86% ✓
Baseline ML PAC -13.1 (-10.1) 133.6 (-0.6) 88% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PAC -12.8 (-9.8) 133.7 (-0.7) 88% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PAC MVSU
Overall 6-26 1-30
Conference 0-16 1-17
Home 5-12 1-8
Away 1-13 0-22
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L23 L3
Avg Pts For 64.1 55.5
Avg Pts Against 81.4 77.7
Massey -9.5 (#329) -20.5 (#362)
Bradley-Terry -0.68 (#237) -1.68 (#300)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.22 (#245) -3.13 (#319)
RPI 0.496 (#178) 0.507 (#164)
Shooting & Four Factors PAC MVSU
FG% 42.7% 33.4%
3PT% 30.6% 28.8%
REB / G 30.0 28.2
OREB / G 6.2 9.8
AST / TO 1.17 0.41
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.7% 36.7%
TOV% 19.5% 24.8%
ORB% 18.5% 26.1%
FT Rate 20.1% 18.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 57.4%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 16.0%
DRB% 73.0% 55.6%
Opp FT Rate 28.5% 32.9%

Game Analysis

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