Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -8000 MVSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -17.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -13.3 (-10.3) | 131.4 (+1.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -11.4 (-8.4) | 132.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -13.1 (-10.1) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -12.8 (-9.8) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 1-17 |
| Home | 5-12 | 1-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L23 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#329) | -20.5 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#237) | -1.68 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#245) | -3.13 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#178) | 0.507 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 33.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 36.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 55.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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