Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -335 USD +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -1.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.9 (+9.1) | 138.8 (+4.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -0.4 (+10.6) | 136.0 (+7.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.6 (+10.4) | 135.9 (+7.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.5 (+10.5) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | 1.8 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#67) | 0.10 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#65) | -0.38 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#134) | 0.462 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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