Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +155 UND -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -3.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -3.2 (+1.2) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -2.0 (+0.0) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.3 (-0.7) | 144.2 (-2.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.6 (-1.4) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#316) | -4.5 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#103) | 1.60 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#118) | 1.66 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#163) | 0.568 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 22.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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