Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -165 TA&M +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -7.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -3.0 (-7.0) | 138.1 (+3.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -4.3 (-8.3) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -3.3 (-7.3) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.2 (-8.2) | 142.2 (-0.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#4) | 12.8 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#83) | 2.63 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#71) | 3.74 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#113) | 0.685 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 18.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 48.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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