Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -138 BGSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +21 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -12.1 (-33.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -8.0 (-29.0) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -7.4 (-28.4) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -7.9 (-28.9) | 146.4 (-3.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -7.5 (-28.5) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#87) | -6.2 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#66) | -2.20 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#61) | -3.92 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#151) | 0.315 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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