Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -138 CAN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -8.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -4.7 (+8.7) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -5.6 (+9.6) | 140.5 (+9.5) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -5.3 (+9.3) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -5.5 (+9.5) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#284) | 2.3 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#323) | 1.70 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.92 (#333) | 2.24 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.315 (#350) | 0.602 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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