Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -450 LAF +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -3.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -4.4 (+5.6) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -2.8 (+7.2) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.2 (+6.8) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.5 (+6.5) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#225) | -6.2 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#109) | -2.65 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#124) | -4.68 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#126) | 0.315 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.