Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VT +130 FAU -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +34 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -1.0 (-35.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -0.3 (-33.7) | 146.3 (-12.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.2 (-34.2) | 149.4 (-15.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -0.1 (-33.9) | 149.4 (-15.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -0.4 (-34.4) | 147.9 (-13.9) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#31) | 10.0 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#33) | 1.99 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#24) | 2.82 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#67) | 0.654 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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