Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK +115 AF -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -4.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -1.7 (-2.7) | 138.9 (-23.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SDAK -0.7 (-1.7) | 137.1 (-22.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SDAK -2.1 (-3.1) | 139.0 (-24.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -2.1 (-3.1) | 140.4 (-25.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | SDAK 80 – 63 AF |
| Dec 6, 2022 | AF 79 – 58 SDAK |
| Nov 11, 2021 | SDAK 59 – 53 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-6 | 4-12 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#176) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#252) | 0.26 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#265) | -0.34 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#309) | 0.496 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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