Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | AF -163 SDAK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | AF -11.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -8.6 (+12.4) | 130.0 (+7.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -7.0 (+14.0) | 131.1 (+5.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -9.3 (+11.7) | 130.2 (+6.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -9.3 (+11.7) | 131.0 (+6.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | SDAK 80 – 63 AF |
| Nov 26, 2023 | AF 58 – 57 SDAK |
| Nov 11, 2021 | SDAK 59 – 53 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#200) | -7.0 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#269) | 0.83 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#260) | 1.24 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#319) | 0.547 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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