Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | AF -1.7 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -1.7 (+18.7) | 143.8 (-0.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.3 (+17.3) | 142.2 (+0.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -1.7 (+18.7) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -1.8 (+18.8) | 142.8 (+0.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | AF 58 – 57 SDAK |
| Dec 6, 2022 | AF 79 – 58 SDAK |
| Nov 11, 2021 | SDAK 59 – 53 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 0-20 |
| Home | 12-5 | 3-15 |
| Away | 3-10 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#310) | -7.4 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#301) | -0.57 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#281) | -0.57 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#290) | 0.466 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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