Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | RGV +210 ARST -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -6.8 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -5.0 (-12.0) | 149.7 (-16.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -4.1 (-12.9) | 149.2 (-16.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -4.0 (-13.0) | 149.7 (-16.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -5.1 (-11.9) | 152.0 (-19.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L14 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#340) | -4.7 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#326) | -2.09 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.99 (#334) | -3.66 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#200) | 0.380 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 19.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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