Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | APP -500 APSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | APP -16.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -12.5 (+7.5) | 134.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -12.8 (+7.2) | 135.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -13.9 (+6.1) | 136.1 (-0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -13.5 (+6.5) | 136.2 (-0.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#89) | -4.4 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#98) | -0.75 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#106) | -1.39 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#94) | 0.460 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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