Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -8000 HC +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +46 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -16.6 (+29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -15.9 (+30.1) | 142.9 (-6.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -11.7 (+34.3) | 148.4 (-12.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -13.0 (+33.0) | 149.7 (-13.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -11.9 (+34.1) | 147.1 (-11.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#152) | -9.0 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | -1.29 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#236) | -2.38 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#106) | 0.398 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 43.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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