We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
67 – 77
FINAL Neutral Northern Classic
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Place Bell (Neutral) · November 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread WKU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money WKU -250 / UNCA +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total WKU win
Actual UNCA +10 144 Lost
Massey WKU -9.9 (-19.9) — —
Massey Totals — 157.0 (-13.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 85% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WKU -6.6 (-16.6) 155.0 (-11.0) 71% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML WKU -6.6 (-16.6) 148.7 (-4.7) 77% ✗
Baseline ML WKU -6.8 (-16.8) 150.0 (-6.0) 75% ✗
Baseline Plus ML WKU -7.3 (-17.3) 152.7 (-8.7) 73% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WKU UNCA
Overall 22-12 22-12
Conference 8-8 12-4
Home 12-2 12-2
Away 6-7 5-7
Neutral 4-3 5-3
Last 5 2-2 1-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.8 75.9
Avg Pts Against 74.7 74.9
Massey 1.2 (#147) -8.7 (#322)
Bradley-Terry 0.72 (#132) -1.00 (#256)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.98 (#136) -2.18 (#285)
RPI 0.525 (#142) 0.407 (#293)
Shooting & Four Factors WKU UNCA
FG% 40.2% 39.8%
3PT% 21.9% 30.1%
REB / G 39.8 31.2
OREB / G 13.8 11.2
AST / TO 0.71 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 42.8% 45.5%
TOV% 15.6% 16.5%
ORB% 32.0% 27.8%
FT Rate 23.6% 32.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.5% 55.3%
Opp TOV% 21.6% 18.8%
DRB% 70.3% 63.5%
Opp FT Rate 31.5% 33.3%

Game Analysis

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