Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | WKU -250 UNCA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | WKU -9.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -6.6 (-16.6) | 155.0 (-11.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -6.6 (-16.6) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -6.8 (-16.8) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -7.3 (-17.3) | 152.7 (-8.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | -8.7 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#132) | -1.00 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#136) | -2.18 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#142) | 0.407 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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