Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -8000 IONA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -14.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -10.6 (+6.4) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -14.7 (+2.3) | 148.9 (+4.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -16.0 (+1.0) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -14.5 (+2.5) | 149.9 (+3.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#71) | -0.4 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#140) | -1.23 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#145) | -1.35 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#150) | 0.357 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 43.3% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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