Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -400 NMSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +6 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -10.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -5.0 (+1.0) | 146.8 (+27.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -6.5 (-0.5) | 144.4 (+29.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -6.6 (-0.6) | 146.0 (+28.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.7 (-0.7) | 147.9 (+26.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-11 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#294) | -10.4 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#297) | -1.32 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#296) | -2.09 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#281) | 0.446 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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