And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Central Arkansas Bears
74 – 79
FINAL Central Arkansas Classic
New Orleans Privateers
Farris Center · November 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CARK -4.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money CARK -188 / UNO +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total CARK win
Actual UNO +5 153 Lost
Massey UNO -0.2 (-4.8) — —
Massey Totals — 145.7 (+7.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 30% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 10% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNO -1.8 (-3.2) 145.3 (+7.7) 36% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNO -0.2 (-4.8) 142.3 (+10.7) 43% ✓
Baseline ML CARK -0.7 (-5.7) 144.4 (+8.6) 42% ✓
Baseline Plus ML CARK -0.3 (-5.3) 148.1 (+4.9) 41% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 24, 2021 UNO 90 – 63 CARK
Feb 23, 2021 UNO 88 – 63 CARK
Jan 7, 2021 CARK 83 – 79 UNO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CARK UNO
Overall 9-23 10-23
Conference 5-11 4-14
Home 5-10 7-6
Away 4-13 2-15
Neutral 0-0 1-2
Last 5 0-5 0-3
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 70.2 70.7
Avg Pts Against 80.3 81.6
Massey -13.0 (#349) -6.1 (#281)
Bradley-Terry -4.08 (#359) -1.86 (#308)
W. Bradley-Terry -6.40 (#358) -2.54 (#298)
RPI 0.305 (#355) 0.356 (#330)
Shooting & Four Factors CARK UNO
FG% 39.0% 37.8%
3PT% 32.1% 25.4%
REB / G 35.2 35.3
OREB / G 11.3 10.0
AST / TO 1.08 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.9% 41.8%
TOV% 17.5% 16.0%
ORB% 28.7% 24.0%
FT Rate 19.2% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 53.8%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 20.6%
DRB% 63.8% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.5% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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