Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | IU -300 HARV +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -12.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -6.1 (+19.1) | 145.2 (+19.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -7.1 (+20.1) | 140.3 (+24.7) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -6.5 (+19.5) | 142.1 (+22.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -7.3 (+20.3) | 142.4 (+22.6) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#218) | 10.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#125) | 2.58 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#95) | 3.19 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#159) | 0.639 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 23.4% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 41.3% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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