Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -2000 AAMU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +27 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -17.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -12.8 (+14.2) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -12.2 (+14.8) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -13.2 (+13.8) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -13.5 (+13.5) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#161) | -10.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#96) | -1.99 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#88) | -2.95 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#70) | 0.338 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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