Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | KC +188 MTSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +4 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -4.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.4 (+0.4) | 127.0 (-5.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.3 (+0.3) | 129.7 (-7.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -4.0 (+0.0) | 131.4 (-9.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.4 (-0.6) | 128.4 (-6.4) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#313) | -3.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#353) | -0.62 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.70 (#355) | 0.42 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#232) | 0.513 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 66.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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