Betting Lines
| Spread | RMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | RMU -188 FDU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RMU +11 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | RMU -10.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RMU -5.0 (+6.0) | 149.7 (+33.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RMU -5.1 (+5.9) | 149.3 (+33.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RMU -5.5 (+5.5) | 148.2 (+34.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RMU -4.2 (+6.8) | 150.9 (+32.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RMU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#227) | -6.8 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#339) | -0.75 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.01 (#335) | -1.22 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#328) | 0.407 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RMU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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