Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1000 NDSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -15.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -13.4 (+1.6) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -15.2 (-0.2) | 148.0 (+9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -16.2 (-1.2) | 148.2 (+8.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -14.7 (+0.3) | 145.3 (+11.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#58) | -0.7 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#50) | 1.35 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#44) | 1.81 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#53) | 0.540 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 41.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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