Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | ASU -120 VAN +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -5.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -2.7 (+12.3) | 138.1 (+10.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -2.8 (+12.2) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -2.0 (+13.0) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -2.3 (+12.7) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#190) | -6.2 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#86) | -0.58 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#80) | -1.51 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#62) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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