Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Arizona State Sun Devils
82 – 67
FINAL Neutral Vegas Showdown
Vanderbilt Commodores
Michelob ULTRA Arena (Neutral) · November 25, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ASU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Over
Money ASU -120 / VAN +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total ASU win
Actual ASU +15 149 Won
Massey ASU -5.0 (+10.0) — —
Massey Totals — 135.5 (+13.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ASU -2.7 (+12.3) 138.1 (+10.9) 63% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML ASU -2.8 (+12.2) 135.2 (+13.8) 65% ✓
Baseline ML ASU -2.0 (+13.0) 135.9 (+13.1) 62% ✓
Baseline Plus ML ASU -2.3 (+12.7) 137.4 (+11.6) 62% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ASU VAN
Overall 14-18 9-23
Conference 8-12 4-14
Home 10-5 8-10
Away 3-8 1-9
Neutral 1-5 0-4
Last 5 2-2 3-2
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 69.0 67.9
Avg Pts Against 74.0 75.9
Massey -1.2 (#190) -6.2 (#286)
Bradley-Terry 1.24 (#86) -0.58 (#232)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.03 (#80) -1.51 (#260)
RPI 0.590 (#62) 0.505 (#163)
Shooting & Four Factors ASU VAN
FG% 36.1% 41.4%
3PT% 24.4% 31.6%
REB / G 34.8 39.6
OREB / G 10.0 12.4
AST / TO 0.98 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 40.4% 49.1%
TOV% 15.5% 20.3%
ORB% 23.8% 34.6%
FT Rate 23.0% 31.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 24.5% 14.5%
DRB% 63.9% 76.8%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 17.0%

Game Analysis

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