Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | PROV -2000 LEH +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -12.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -13.6 (+0.4) | 144.8 (-2.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -10.8 (+3.2) | 140.6 (+1.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -11.2 (+2.8) | 142.0 (-0.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -11.6 (+2.4) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#108) | -0.8 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#113) | -1.53 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#114) | -1.78 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#42) | 0.438 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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