Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -333 LAM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -5.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -7.1 (+3.9) | 151.1 (+3.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -6.2 (+4.8) | 148.3 (+6.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -5.8 (+5.2) | 151.2 (+3.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.8 (+4.2) | 152.9 (+2.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#204) | -0.6 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#119) | -0.79 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#120) | -0.86 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#172) | 0.462 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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