Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | SFPA +205 NIA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -4.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -1.8 (-9.8) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -3.6 (-11.6) | 137.5 (-7.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -3.1 (-11.1) | 140.7 (-10.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -1.8 (-9.8) | 134.5 (-4.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | NIA 69 – 66 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-14 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#348) | -10.2 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#287) | -3.14 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#272) | -4.80 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#290) | 0.380 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 26.8 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 16.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 58.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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