Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -170 SFPA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -2.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -3.1 (-0.1) | 136.9 (-1.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -2.4 (+0.6) | 139.0 (-4.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -2.5 (+0.5) | 138.5 (-3.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -2.8 (+0.2) | 137.7 (-2.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | NIA 69 – 61 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#303) | -6.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#245) | -0.16 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#289) | -0.45 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#282) | 0.529 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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