Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -700 RGV +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -9.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -9.7 (+9.3) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -9.0 (+10.0) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -9.3 (+9.7) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -9.7 (+9.3) | 147.8 (-14.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 13-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#161) | -9.7 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#75) | -2.18 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#71) | -3.90 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.446 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 21.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 38.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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