Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -250 BUCK +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +24 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -16.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -9.4 (+14.6) | 129.6 (-7.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -10.4 (+13.6) | 132.7 (-10.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -12.2 (+11.8) | 132.1 (-10.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -11.6 (+12.4) | 130.7 (-8.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2022 | MRST 60 – 54 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#128) | -6.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#135) | -0.85 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#143) | -1.22 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#270) | 0.458 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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