Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CSUN -1600 MVSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +36 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -21.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -16.1 (+19.9) | 135.2 (-3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -14.3 (+21.7) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -15.2 (+20.8) | 139.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -15.4 (+20.6) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-7 | 1-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#238) | -18.1 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#217) | -1.26 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#254) | -2.02 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#297) | 0.532 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 33.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 35.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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