Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU +120 UNCW -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +16 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -7.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -2.2 (-18.2) | 145.8 (-19.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -2.9 (-18.9) | 145.2 (-19.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -2.4 (-18.4) | 142.1 (-16.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.2 (-18.2) | 139.2 (-13.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | UNCW 79 – 66 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#246) | -4.4 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.40 (#354) | 0.25 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.03 (#352) | -0.37 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.348 (#328) | 0.399 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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