We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Alico Arena · November 25, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNCW -1.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money FGCU +120 / UNCW -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total FGCU win
Actual UNCW +16 126 Lost
Massey FGCU -7.4 (-23.4)
Massey Totals 152.2 (-26.2)
Bradley-Terry 10%
Weighted B-T 6%
Baseline Plus ML FGCU -2.2 (-18.2) 145.8 (-19.8) 58%
Baseline ML FGCU -2.9 (-18.9) 145.2 (-19.2) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML FGCU -2.4 (-18.4) 142.1 (-16.1) 58%
Efficiency Plus ML FGCU -2.2 (-18.2) 139.2 (-13.2) 47%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2024 UNCW 7966 FGCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FGCU UNCW
Overall 14-18 21-10
Conference 8-8 12-6
Home 9-5 10-2
Away 5-10 10-6
Neutral 0-3 1-2
Last 5 0-5 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.2 75.8
Avg Pts Against 71.6 71.6
Massey -3.9 (#246) -4.4 (#255)
Bradley-Terry -3.40 (#354) 0.25 (#158)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.03 (#352) -0.37 (#204)
RPI 0.348 (#328) 0.399 (#293)
Shooting & Four Factors FGCU UNCW
FG% 42.6% 42.3%
3PT% 32.2% 35.9%
REB / G 34.0 33.7
OREB / G 12.8 8.0
AST / TO 0.85 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.3% 48.6%
TOV% 18.5% 13.9%
ORB% 36.4% 22.4%
FT Rate 21.3% 24.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.1% 56.9%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 15.3%
DRB% 69.3% 77.0%
Opp FT Rate 34.1% 19.4%

Game Analysis

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