Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +140 EMU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | CARK -4.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -2.3 (-5.3) | 136.7 (+8.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -1.5 (-4.5) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -0.4 (-3.4) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -1.3 (-4.3) | 137.4 (+7.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#343) | -9.6 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.67 (#357) | 0.85 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.35 (#355) | 1.08 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.330 (#342) | 0.528 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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