Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | ORE +360 ALA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +8 | 190 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -15.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -5.6 (-2.4) | 159.4 (+30.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.5 (-0.5) | 160.4 (+29.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.7 (-0.3) | 160.3 (+29.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -7.5 (-0.5) | 163.5 (+26.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | ORE 83 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#54) | 23.8 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#34) | 2.55 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#34) | 3.55 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#45) | 0.746 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 56.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 48.9% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 65.9% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 41.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 40.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 83.7% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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