Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | UK -2400 MRSH +1150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +36 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | UK -17.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+38.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -13.4 (+22.6) | 159.3 (+40.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -16.0 (+20.0) | 153.3 (+46.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -18.1 (+17.9) | 153.1 (+46.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -18.6 (+17.4) | 161.8 (+38.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#43) | -0.7 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#94) | -0.75 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#74) | -0.90 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#108) | 0.454 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 10.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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