Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | GB +200 STMN -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +13 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | GB -1.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.7 (+15.7) | 127.3 (-12.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GB -0.6 (+12.4) | 128.1 (-13.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GB -1.3 (+11.7) | 127.2 (-12.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.5 (+13.5) | 128.2 (-13.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2025 | STMN 80 – 61 GB |
| Nov 9, 2024 | STMN 90 – 76 GB |
| Dec 14, 2022 | STMN 82 – 61 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#281) | 0.2 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#249) | -0.53 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#309) | -0.32 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#276) | 0.449 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 8.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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