Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -163 USD +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +14 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -2.2 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -3.1 (-10.9) | 148.4 (-20.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -4.2 (-9.8) | 149.1 (-21.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -3.5 (-10.5) | 148.4 (-20.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -4.3 (-9.7) | 149.1 (-21.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | -0.4 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#297) | 0.10 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#312) | -0.22 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#312) | 0.459 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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