Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | GTWN -800 JKST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -15.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -11.4 (-4.4) | 148.8 (+20.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -12.3 (-5.3) | 147.6 (+21.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -12.3 (-5.3) | 148.9 (+20.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -13.2 (-6.2) | 148.0 (+21.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-12 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#156) | -7.8 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#286) | -0.04 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#213) | -1.31 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#254) | 0.527 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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