Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +180 MONM -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -6.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -4.8 (-5.2) | 139.6 (-23.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MONM -1.9 (-8.1) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MONM -4.6 (-5.4) | 138.6 (-22.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -5.1 (-4.9) | 137.3 (-21.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | MONM 88 – 74 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#274) | 0.9 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#334) | 1.49 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.37 (#347) | 2.42 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.306 (#351) | 0.566 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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