Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LAF +114 MONM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +14 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -4.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -3.0 (-11.0) | 141.7 (+20.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MONM -5.8 (-8.2) | 140.1 (+21.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MONM -3.1 (-10.9) | 138.9 (+23.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -3.2 (-10.8) | 139.1 (+22.9) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | MONM 63 – 53 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#339) | -3.5 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.41 (#351) | -1.06 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.00 (#350) | -2.27 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.316 (#357) | 0.428 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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