Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -2500 SCST +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +18 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -27.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -20.2 (-2.2) | 150.7 (+15.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -21.4 (-3.4) | 145.2 (+20.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -24.1 (-6.1) | 143.9 (+22.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -25.0 (-7.0) | 145.9 (+20.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#77) | -14.0 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#90) | -1.65 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#100) | -3.20 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#115) | 0.453 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 22.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 40.6% |
Game Analysis
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