I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–22 on winners spread MAE 10.1 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Arkansas +2.4 150.0 57% 84–69 ✗
UConn @ Marquette -0.6 153.3 48% 76–82 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier +4.6 155.5 73% 87–90 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +12.2 142.3 87% 72–88 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +1.1 144.3 55% 71–69 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Duke +6.7 142.0 74% 69–77 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia +3.7 153.6 69% 83–78 ✗
Memphis @ UCF +5.9 137.5 74% 104–107 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +8.7 148.8 82% 71–77 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +4.2 138.3 67% 58–76 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +8.0 135.2 79% 67–57 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +6.1 134.5 74% 69–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse -0.9 141.4 47% 72–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Maine +3.1 135.9 62% 71–58 ✗
Binghamton @ NJIT +4.4 140.8 67% 72–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Bryant +8.7 153.1 82% 69–86 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +4.6 138.4 70% 59–50 ✗
Indiana @ Penn State +0.8 146.2 56% 66–85 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Rhode Island +0.9 136.9 53% 67–68 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +1.0 137.4 56% 61–57 ✗
La Salle @ Massachusetts +9.6 146.6 84% 78–77 ✗
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's -3.2 143.3 35% 92–80 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop -1.8 141.2 43% 66–52 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian -6.4 130.5 23% 79–78 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern +1.3 153.2 55% 69–106 ✓
Campbell @ South Carolina Upstate +2.4 136.1 61% 78–63 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ VMI -7.5 136.7 21% 72–57 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -3.2 143.7 36% 84–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +5.4 146.1 77% 76–95 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel +1.5 138.1 53% 96–74 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Elon -3.5 141.3 30% 80–71 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +8.9 139.8 82% 65–81 ✓
Towson @ Delaware +0.6 136.6 54% 59–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Hofstra +18.9 143.4 91% 57–77 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.6 150.0 50% 86–103 ✗
South Florida @ Houston +20.5 134.5 91% 77–83 ✓
Tulane @ SMU -1.8 151.9 44% 97–88 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +8.7 128.1 82% 65–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Illinois State -3.7 130.3 33% 66–76 ✗
Evansville @ Bradley +17.1 132.3 91% 46–91 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International -11.7 143.6 15% 77–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Rice +2.0 150.4 61% 71–68 ✗
George Mason @ Saint Louis +5.6 146.2 71% 62–63 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +4.0 142.0 70% 58–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Tarleton State +8.7 139.4 81% 63–73 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +0.7 155.5 50% 64–82 ✓
TCU @ Texas +6.5 150.1 74% 75–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Cincinnati +8.1 139.4 80% 55–83 ✓
Louisville @ Clemson +16.7 144.2 91% 70–83 ✓
Florida State @ Wake Forest +9.1 152.4 82% 75–90 ✓
UTSA @ UTEP +8.3 135.4 81% 57–69 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UAB +10.7 152.0 86% 80–78 ✗
Rutgers @ Northwestern +0.5 125.9 53% 65–62 ✗
Utah Valley @ California Baptist -3.2 134.5 35% 71–67 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge -6.1 138.9 27% 62–54 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +8.9 141.7 81% 65–70 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego -3.2 133.5 38% 74–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -7.8 126.6 21% 60–48 ✓
California @ Washington State +11.4 133.8 86% 51–66 ✓
Boise State @ UNLV +2.5 136.8 62% 84–66 ✗
Minnesota @ Ohio State +17.0 142.8 90% 70–67 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +2.5 132.1 62% 67–65 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine -1.3 139.7 45% 80–51 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.