We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–18 on winners spread MAE 9.1 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Michigan @ Iowa +5.5 153.9 70% 84–93 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville -1.5 144.0 46% 46–54 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State -4.1 130.1 31% 65–53 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +8.1 141.5 80% 67–66 ✗
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -2.6 160.8 39% 84–79 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +1.6 142.0 59% 65–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -13.6 139.5 13% 70–55 ✓
Drexel @ Stony Brook -5.9 123.4 27% 66–67 ✗
North Alabama @ Liberty +15.6 141.7 90% 54–72 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +11.5 157.0 87% 92–91 ✗
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State +1.9 131.0 61% 68–81 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville State +0.5 144.1 51% 63–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky -3.4 145.4 35% 76–97 ✗
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -6.0 145.0 26% 86–73 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State -3.1 122.7 35% 61–58 ✓
James Madison @ South Alabama -4.0 141.7 36% 62–63 ✗
St. Thomas @ Kansas City +0.4 140.2 53% 60–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +13.4 153.1 88% 63–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Omaha +4.8 141.6 70% 63–69 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -6.8 145.7 28% 99–67 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +4.2 136.1 68% 75–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +7.1 142.4 77% 71–94 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian -7.2 150.0 23% 59–68 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.9 150.9 77% 85–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +2.3 137.6 61% 62–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois -8.0 137.9 20% 80–62 ✓
Nicholls @ Lamar -7.4 143.2 23% 66–69 ✗
Colorado @ USC +2.1 142.9 58% 61–68 ✓
Arizona State @ Oregon +1.9 136.9 62% 90–73 ✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State +7.6 141.0 81% 75–89 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Incarnate Word +2.7 147.2 63% 85–79 ✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +11.1 134.0 87% 48–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Southern Utah -1.9 147.3 39% 74–86 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Tech +2.8 146.4 64% 85–72 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Mary's +12.5 131.6 85% 62–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ Marshall +3.8 143.8 67% 67–89 ✓
North Dakota State @ Denver +2.2 145.9 61% 90–70 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +2.5 155.4 63% 77–66 ✗
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana +8.5 156.8 81% 67–74 ✓
Weber State @ Montana +4.7 137.4 70% 59–57 ✗
Idaho State @ Montana State +7.4 136.8 80% 68–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +1.3 139.5 56% 87–65 ✗
Gonzaga @ BYU -2.0 150.8 37% 75–74 ✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U +4.2 145.0 73% 66–69 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego +1.2 158.2 57% 89–92 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +6.9 137.4 76% 58–77 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State +7.4 147.6 79% 64–72 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +6.3 154.4 75% 74–75 ✓
Utah @ UCLA +11.6 135.7 84% 49–68 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon State -13.2 142.3 14% 86–74 ✓
Stanford @ Washington +3.1 138.8 66% 69–86 ✓
San Francisco @ Portland -0.5 147.5 47% 87–92 ✗
Yale @ Cornell +2.1 145.3 61% 82–94 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio -2.6 139.1 31% 70–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.