All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 10.0 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Seton Hall -6.0 145.7 31% 60–75 ✗
Baylor @ Duke -1.4 154.4 53% 70–78 ✗
Xavier @ St. John's +5.4 147.2 74% 66–81 ✓
Grambling @ SE Louisiana +7.1 132.8 72% 47–48 ✓
Rider @ Delaware +13.9 143.7 86% 88–85 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgia +9.7 139.0 79% 82–94 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis -0.0 133.7 45% 75–73 ✓
Delaware State @ East Carolina +5.9 140.2 71% 50–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ NC State +14.8 152.1 88% 70–82 ✓
Wyoming @ South Dakota State +2.6 140.7 58% 78–65 ✗
Vermont @ Toledo +6.2 144.5 72% 86–60 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Pittsburgh +10.5 150.9 82% 48–62 ✓
Oakland @ Dayton +10.5 139.9 80% 67–91 ✓
Radford @ West Virginia +1.1 137.3 49% 66–65 ✗
Kansas City @ East Tennessee State +5.9 137.8 71% 57–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Belmont +7.4 153.8 75% 70–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Nebraska +15.9 139.5 87% 75–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice +5.3 140.5 76% 56–82 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Evansville +13.1 147.5 85% 51–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grand Canyon +15.9 145.4 88% 64–76 ✓
Liberty @ Utah Valley -2.1 132.9 38% 79–63 ✓
UMBC @ Iowa +23.5 168.8 91% 81–103 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Chicago State +4.3 138.2 69% 54–55 ✓
Northwestern @ Arizona State -3.4 141.0 34% 65–46 ✓
North Carolina @ Oklahoma +2.9 151.9 63% 81–69 ✗
Villanova @ Creighton +10.3 142.8 82% 68–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Gonzaga +20.1 148.1 89% 76–100 ✓
UC Irvine @ New Mexico +8.0 149.4 79% 65–78 ✓
Bellarmine @ Utah +18.6 141.3 89% 43–85 ✓
Norfolk State @ UTEP +1.6 134.9 55% 65–67 ✓
Howard @ UC Santa Barbara +8.3 150.9 78% 81–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Seattle U +1.2 135.4 53% 73–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ San Francisco +13.6 131.9 84% 51–91 ✓
Santa Clara @ San José State +2.3 146.5 61% 78–81 ✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +13.8 133.3 89% 56–67 ✓
Alabama @ Arizona +7.9 172.3 70% 74–87 ✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart +3.5 130.7 63% 57–67 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fordham +5.9 135.7 71% 82–80 ✗
Hampton @ Eastern Michigan +6.7 144.5 66% 69–72 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas Tech +12.3 145.8 85% 66–77 ✓
Navy @ Youngstown State +9.0 135.5 81% 65–75 ✓
Manhattan @ Monmouth +10.8 143.1 84% 71–77 ✓
Holy Cross @ Harvard +17.9 143.8 91% 72–74 ✓
Alcorn State @ George Washington +18.3 158.0 90% 75–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UIC +15.5 142.8 87% 67–66 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Lafayette -4.3 137.7 31% 78–60 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Little Rock +1.8 138.9 59% 90–60 ✗
Nevada @ Temple -7.1 145.4 22% 80–56 ✓
Presbyterian @ Wake Forest +19.8 145.3 89% 68–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force +7.9 138.9 77% 83–79 ✗
Niagara @ Syracuse +21.1 148.6 90% 71–83 ✓
American University @ Virginia Tech +18.6 139.3 86% 55–77 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Coastal Carolina +6.7 153.4 75% 85–82 ✗
TCU @ Old Dominion -14.1 149.4 14% 111–87 ✓
Kentucky @ Louisville -9.1 158.1 17% 95–76 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston College +17.9 151.2 89% 69–85 ✓
Western Michigan @ Cleveland State +10.8 141.8 83% 77–90 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Ohio State +22.3 152.9 91% 36–78 ✓
New Hampshire @ Rhode Island +1.8 146.9 57% 81–71 ✗
Jacksonville @ Purdue +31.3 155.3 91% 57–100 ✓
Tarleton State @ Tennessee +18.5 140.3 89% 46–65 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Akron +10.4 136.6 78% 90–94 ✓
Stony Brook @ Michigan State +19.0 142.0 89% 55–99 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.