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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–13 on winners spread MAE 9.1 62 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Le Moyne @ Penn State +12.3 151.7 86% 55–72 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Davidson +13.2 142.3 87% 59–62 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Arkansas +13.1 152.5 87% 73–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Oregon State +5.2 138.1 72% 57–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Richmond +23.0 143.1 91% 66–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Colorado +18.7 149.5 89% 71–98 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Troy +8.3 148.4 76% 81–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Central Michigan +6.1 138.9 67% 63–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Marshall +0.5 148.5 57% 78–69 ✗
UNC Asheville @ App State +11.2 144.0 81% 76–63 ✗
Colgate @ Iona +1.1 133.8 52% 65–85 ✓
South Dakota State @ Norfolk State -1.9 134.8 42% 65–84 ✗
Samford @ Texas Southern -6.8 152.0 25% 87–65 ✓
Maine @ Florida International -1.1 134.2 51% 74–82 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Charleston +0.2 142.0 51% 82–89 ✓
William & Mary @ Pepperdine +6.9 149.6 78% 59–71 ✓
Fairfield @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.7 151.2 48% 92–69 ✓
Florida A&M @ UCF +21.2 139.8 91% 56–69 ✓
Texas State @ Houston +26.5 124.9 91% 37–72 ✓
Alabama A&M @ South Alabama +13.2 148.9 89% 67–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Miami +26.5 147.9 91% 59–97 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Northern Illinois +2.0 154.9 60% 76–63 ✗
Ball State @ Minnesota +15.3 143.2 87% 63–80 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Bradley +10.1 136.2 82% 64–75 ✓
Army @ UTSA +6.7 138.3 63% 63–53 ✗
Idaho @ UC Riverside +2.6 134.2 64% 67–82 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Illinois State +13.0 133.0 85% 64–85 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Iowa State +32.1 142.6 91% 48–80 ✓
North Alabama @ Indiana +8.8 147.5 79% 66–83 ✓
Wichita State @ Kansas State +0.7 145.1 54% 60–69 ✓
Stanford @ San Diego State +12.7 149.2 86% 60–74 ✓
Kent State @ Oregon +7.4 151.8 75% 70–84 ✓
Lamar @ LSU +7.2 152.7 79% 66–87 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Washington +17.6 158.7 89% 66–73 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Massachusetts +2.5 146.1 61% 73–70 ✗
Wyoming @ UTEP +2.2 138.2 57% 67–78 ✓
South Dakota @ San Diego +10.1 157.1 84% 66–69 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Saint Mary's +12.9 131.1 87% 56–92 ✓
Hofstra @ UNLV +1.7 142.9 56% 56–74 ✓
Omaha @ Cal Poly +2.4 136.5 56% 53–66 ✓
Boise State @ Washington State +1.0 138.7 55% 61–66 ✓
Portland @ Hawai'i +12.3 148.4 85% 56–69 ✓
Drexel @ Bryant -0.1 133.1 47% 86–104 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Boston University -0.1 136.7 49% 71–63 ✓
James Madison @ Morgan State -14.0 160.4 14% 89–75 ✓
Vermont @ Miami (OH) -2.4 139.6 43% 69–70 ✗
Cornell @ Robert Morris -4.4 153.4 34% 90–85 ✓
Chattanooga @ Milwaukee -0.8 149.2 48% 83–85 ✗
George Mason @ Tulane +4.2 155.7 64% 69–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Merrimack +7.6 129.5 75% 52–68 ✓
Siena @ Brown +15.1 131.6 89% 67–71 ✓
UAlbany @ South Florida +6.2 148.6 72% 73–89 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas +20.3 148.1 89% 55–71 ✓
Drake @ UAB -5.0 147.1 35% 78–79 ✗
North Florida @ Georgia +14.1 145.7 88% 60–78 ✓
Nicholls @ Towson +4.2 140.1 72% 55–65 ✓
Montana State @ Cal State Northridge +7.7 141.9 80% 70–82 ✓
Grambling @ Florida +25.5 146.8 91% 57–96 ✓
Nevada @ TCU +0.2 147.3 48% 88–75 ✗
Queens University @ Clemson +21.2 151.3 91% 79–109 ✓
SMU @ Murray State -8.5 136.7 20% 92–65 ✓
Elon @ South Carolina +16.6 149.6 88% 43–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.